Tennessee Titans’ operating again Derrick Henry has been threatening to interrupt out for a number of years.
In his rookie yr of 2016, Henry averaged 4.5 yards per carry and managed 5 touchdowns in simply 110 carries.
Then in 2017, his sophomore yr, the operating again averaged 4.2 yards per carry and scored 5 touchdowns once more, this time on 176 carries.
In 2018, Henry hit 1,000 speeding yards for the primary time, with 1,059 in 215 carries (4.9 yards per carry). Most impressively, he scored an unbelievable 12 touchdowns. That was a terrific yr, but it surely was laborious to name him a celebrity off of it.
Then got here 2019 although. And with it, that celebrity breakout yr that everybody had been ready for.
On 303 carries, Henry racked up 1,540 yards (5.1 yards per carry) and 16 touchdowns. He led the NFL in all of these classes. Even his yards per carry was the very best amongst operating backs with a minimum of 150 carries.
It’s protected to say, Henry was formally thought-about a celebrity after that season. What does it imply for the longer term although? What’s the fantasy outlook of Henry for the 2020 season?
Let’s check out his previous and current and attempt to determine it out.
2019 Fantasy Stats
We’ve already touched on Henry’s unbelievable 2019 season.
He led the NFL with 1,540 yards and 16 touchdowns. Each give him an enormous benefit relating to fantasy soccer. Clearly these stats put him in a terrific spot relating to racking up fantasy factors.
Nevertheless, Derrick Henry has two issues going in opposition to him right here. First, he isn’t a lot of a receiver. The operating again caught 18 passes for 206 receiving yards and two landing receptions.
These are usually not precisely nice numbers for a PPR league. Plenty of operating backs are going to make up the distinction in speeding numbers by vastly outperforming Derrick Henry on this space.
There’s one different main drawback with Derrick Henry, his inconsistency. This has been a difficulty his total profession. And 2019 was no totally different.
Final season, Derrick Henry had three video games with over 150 yards speeding (one with over 200). He had six complete 100 yard speeding video games.
In these six video games, he added up for 910 speeding yards and 10 speeding touchdowns.
That leaves simply 630 speeding yards and 6 speeding touchdowns for the opposite 9 video games (Derrick Henry appeared in 15 video games final season).
That’s a mean of 70 speeding yards and 0.667 speeding touchdowns a sport. That’s not precisely going to get you a lot with reference to fantasy.
So whereas Henry’s total fantasy numbers are nice, he was not at all times good on a week-to-week foundation.
There have been instances the place he might get somebody a fantasy win principally all by himself. However there have been far too many video games the place he barely contributed to your staff.
Worst of all, his finest sport (211 yards and three speeding touchdowns) got here in Week 17 – the final week of the season. Most fantasy leagues have already wrapped up by that time.
So nice total numbers, however the consistency leaves so much to be desired.
2020 Fantasy Projections
It’s irritating to say this, however it’s best to in all probability anticipate extra of the identical from Derrick Henry. And this isn’t all his fault.
It’s not like I’m saying Derrick Henry is inconsistent as a result of he isn’t a terrific participant. One of many predominant causes Henry is inconsistent is due to the offense he’s in.
Tennessee will not be precisely feared relating to their passing assault. Ryan Tannehill had a pleasant breakout yr in 2019. However he confirmed within the playoffs final yr that you may’t precisely belief him fully but.
So groups are going to focus closely on stopping Derrick Henry. Cease the operating again and power Tannehill and the passing offense to beat you, that’s the good play in opposition to the Titans.
Resulting from that, Derrick Henry goes to face defenses which might be fully sport planning for him.
He’s going to have his tremendous human runs. He’ll break off that 80 yard landing run that makes everybody go loopy. And with that, he could have some monster video games. Don’t be shocked if he flirts with 200 yards a number of instances and picks up fairly a number of multi-touchdown video games.
However the dangerous video games will include it.
Total, Derrick Henry might very simply lead the NFL in speeding yards and speeding touchdowns once more. And in doing so, he’s going to be one of many highest scoring fantasy soccer operating backs.
He nonetheless received’t get you a lot within the receiving class although, so that may damage him. And the inconsistency shall be there, so that you shouldn’t anticipate monster video games each week.
1,500 yards and one other 15 touchdowns could possibly be on the docket. Don’t anticipate something greater than 20 receptions and 250 receiving yards although.
When you can cope with a number of dangerous video games, these “good” video games shall be greater than price it.
Rank At Place
This can be a actually robust one for Derrick Henry. As a result of he has the expertise to steer the NFL in speeding yards and speeding touchdowns. He actually did simply that in 2019.
However his receiving numbers will drop him down a number of spots.
So with that in thoughts, Derrick Henry is totally a top-10 fantasy soccer operating again, and might be even near top-5, however he’s not there but.
In case you are in a PPR league, there are nonetheless some apparent operating backs to place forward of him.
Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliot and Alvin Kamara are all proper close to the highest. Todd Gurley, Leonard Fournette, Aaron Jones, Dalvin Cook dinner, Nick Chubb and Austin Ekeler is also thought-about proper close to the highest.
Henry is someplace in that group. McCaffrey is the clear primary, and Barkley in all probability takes the clear quantity two spot. After that although, it’s form of a free-for-all.
Derrick Henry might be going to get you the most effective particular person video games out of the remainder of that group, however he’s additionally the one most susceptible to dropping a stinker any given week.
When you’re on the lookout for consistency, you may need to keep away from Henry. If you’d like somebody that shall be proper close to the highest of the fantasy soccer factors leaderboard on the finish of the yr although, Henry is the operating again for you.